About GeoCosmo

Forecasting earthquakes implies that there are time-varying processes, which depend on the changing conditions deep in the Earth's crust prior to major seismic activity. These processes may be linearly or non-linearly correlated. In seismology, the research has traditionally focused on mechanical variables, including precursory ground deformation (revealing the build-up of stress deep below) and on prior seismic events (past earthquakes may be related to or even trigger future earthquakes). Since the results have been less than convincing, there is a general consensus in the seismology community that earthquake forecasting on time scales comparable to meteorological forecasts is still quite far in the future, if ever attainable.

The starting point of the present review is to acknowledge that there are innumerable reports of other types of precursory phenomena observable on the ground or in near-Earth space, ranging from the emission of electromagnetic waves from ultralow frequency (ULF) to near-infrared (NIR) and visible (VIS) light, electric field and magnetic field anomalies of various kinds, all the way to widely reported but never fully understood unusual animal behavior. These precursory signals are intermittent and seem not to occur systematically before every major earthquake. As a result they are not widely accepted, because no one could fully explain their origins. In addition, the diversity of these signals makes them look unrelatable, hampering any progress.



In the first part, we review evidence for a solid-state mechanism based on decades of research bridging semi-conductor physics, solid state chemistry and rock physics, that is capable of providing explanations for the diversity of reported pre-earthquake phenomena. In fact, it appears that all pre-earthquake phenomena might be traceable to a single fundamental process on the atomic scale: the rupture of peroxy bonds via activation of electronic charges, electrons and positive holes, in rocks subjected to tectonic stresses prior to seismic activity. The positive holes are defect electrons in the O2- sublattice. They are unusual inasmuch as they are able to flow out of the stressed rock volume, into and through the surrounding unstressed or less stressed rocks. They form electric currents that travel fast and far, causing along the way a wide range of physical and chemical follow-on processes: electrical ground potentials, stimulated infrared emission, massive air ionization, radon emanation, increased levels of ozone, toxic levels of carbon monoxide (CO) and more.

In the second part, we critically examine satellite and ground station data, recorded before a selection of past large earthquakes. Some of the phenomena can be directly related to the peroxy defect theory, namely, radon gas emanations, corona discharges, thermal infrared emissions, air ionization, ion and electron content in the ionosphere, and electro-magnetic anomalies.



Of course there is a need for further systematic investigations, continuing statistical examination of the relevance and confidence levels of the observable precursors. Only then will the scientific community be able to assess and eventually improve the performance of earthquake forecasts.

Much before and well after seismology developed into a hard science, mainly based on mechanical concepts of static and dynamic deformation of materials, solid state physics may have provided another way to consider the preparatory stages to large earthquake occurrences (for instance, one can trace the connection of earthquakes and electromagnetic phenomena back to the papers of Shida, 1886, and Milne, 1890).



Countless reports of precursory phenomena have been accumulated through time, first witnessing visual observations, then recorded by an ever increasing number of ground stations or remote satellites. Those precursory signals are thought to reflect the time-varying processes associated with the slow tectonic stress accumulation in the Earth's crust. Such reported pre-seismic earthquake precursors recorded on the ground or from space are compiled and concern very diverse categories such as variations of the magnetic field, electromagnetic fluctuations over various frequency bands, gas emanation from the ground, changes of ionospheric properties, earthquake lights, night glows, up to the controversial reports of weird behaviour of domestic or wild animals.

Explanation of Earthquake Precursors is in Our Science page. You may also find some data. Today's Early Warning system the earthquake is already occurred, with P waves. Our Early Warning system is very different, we may forecast EQ's 2-4-6 days before they occur.